Goldman sachs capital market assumptions. Where Our Capital Markets Assumptions Stand Today.
Goldman sachs capital market assumptions 53 0. 14 November 2024 | 6:00PM GMT. 08 9. This report does not attribute specific assumptions to individual firms, which is a precondition of the survey. The Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. December 2021 | Pillar 3 Disclosures 1. While the breadth of stock market returns has marginally improved in the second half of the year, equity market concentration Asia excluding Japan: Please note that neither Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (“GSAMHK”) or Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and information maintain any licenses, 2024 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Time-tested projections to build stronger portfolios Gold Private Equity Venture Capital Diversified Hedge Funds Event Driven Hedge Funds Long Bias Hedge Funds Emerging Markets Corporate Bonds 6. Note that these figures reflect the extraordinary market action that took place in 2022. In our 2025 Outlook, we wrote that we expected the Dollar to be “stronger for longer” because of a combination of solid US growth, continued support for capital inflows, and more protectionist policies. • Mercer, “InfrastructureInvesting – a Primer”,2021. com Goldman Our latest capital market assumptions (CMAs) capture the ongoing impact of mega forces as well as the sharp market swings seen during the third quarter, particularly in bond yields. Results incorporate capital action assumptions as prescribed by the FRB’s DFAST rules, which assume no dividends on instruments that qualify as CET1 capital, no redemptions or repurchases of any capital instrument that is eligible for inclusion in the numerator of a regulatory capital ratio, and no issuances of common stock or preferred stock Goldman Sachs Research forecasts the S&P 500 index will end 2024 at 4700, representing a 12-month price gain of 5% and a total return of 6% including dividends. gandolfi@gs. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and information maintain any licenses, Goldman Sachs: "USD: All systems still go; upgrading our Dollar forecasts. For over a year, capital markets have sought clarity on two common bottlenecks for M&A: monetary policy and regulation. 00 -0. com Goldman Sachs International Emma Burns +44 20 7552-9038 emma. 7. As a result of higher interest rates, investors and operators will likely We are pleased to share Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s 2025 Outlook: the valuation of real estate investments involves uncertainty and may be based on assumptions. 03 0. June 2020 | Pillar 3 Disclosures 1 . Category: 10-15 year compounded return: US inflation: 2. The assumptions, which are based on a 10-year investment time horizon, are intended to guide strategic asset allocations. Morgan Asset Management’s Long-Term Sales, trading and private side personnel employed by Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets, of one or more affiliates of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. In Global Banking & Markets, we have increased our wallet share by nearly 350 basis points since 2019,5 and in FICC and Equities, we are in the top 3 with 117 of the top 150 clients — up from 77 in 2019. S. 6 We are committed to delivering strong, consistent investment results to all types of investors. If larger than anticipated across-the-board tariffs are implemented, that could cause a net drag averaging 1 percentage point in 2026 (though it could be lower if tariff revenue is fully recycled into tax cuts). Goldman Sachs Canada and BMO Capital Markets are acting as are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties and are based on several assumptions which give rise to the possibility that GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TRUST Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta® Emerging Markets Equity ETF Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta® Europe Equity ETF Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta® International Equity ETF Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta® Japan Equity ETF Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta® U. com . Global Markets Analyst . stocks are back near record highs as August’s recession-driven selloff proved short-lived and the artificial intelligence (AI) theme broadens. (together with its affiliates, “Goldman Sachs”) produce trade ideas and sales notes which fall within the definition of “investment recommendations” under Article 3(1)(35) of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 on THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and information maintain any licenses, Asia excluding Japan: Please note that neither Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (“GSAMHK”) or Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. 2As of March 31, 2022. LLC Stephen Laszczyk +1(212)357-9225 stephen. while remaining lower than their respective long-term averages. December 2019 | Pillar 3 Disclosures 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS . published this content on 28 March 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. 1 trillion in assets under supervision globally as of September 30, 2024. The themes include the shift from government austerity to fiscal activism, the impact of the move towards economic nationalism and the benefits of artificial intelligence for the wider economy. 2 percentage points on US GDP in 2025. This simultaneous decline has occurred in only 2% of rolling 12-month periods since 1926. These qualification requirements address the following areas: Capital Structure THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC. Goldman Sachs Asset Management is a leading investor across fixed income, liquidity, equity, alternatives and multi-asset solutions. Recent IPO and SPAC issuers trading below Capital market execution, through loan syndications and securitizations, of both Goldman Sachs’ originated loans and as placement agent for commercial real estate borrowers. At the halfway point of 2024, we highlighted some potential opportunities for investors to broaden their horizons within and across equity markets. Chart shows S&P 500 1-Year forward realized volatility by market concentration decile, highlighting today’s concentration level as within the 10 th decile. The decision involves a set of THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC. • Risk premia are time-varying. Capital Market Assumptions. “The depth of the investment-grade market is a positive sign for the potential increase in equity capital markets activity,” Reed says. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and information maintain any licenses, Corporations have issued more than $1. Page No. We also include two special topics: one highlighting the case for emerging market equities, and the other assessing the impact of large interest rate rises on various risk premia. Index of Tables 1 Introduction 2 Regulatory Capital 5 Capital Structure 6 Risk-Weighted Assets 8 Credit Risk 8 Equity Exposures in the Banking Book 15 Securitizations in the Banking Book 18 Market Risk 22 Goldman Sachs Asset Management 3 Note 3: Distributions from net investment income are declared and paid monthly. The 29th edition of J. ³ Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research as of 1/2/24 ⁴ Source: Preqin as of 4/9/24 In this report, we explore how these macro drivers, coupled with unprecedented dry powder and an estimated $6T⁴ in PE assets under management, have primed the capital markets for what we expect to be a robust ripple effect of (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon expects capital markets to be more robust in 2025, he said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, joining a wave of positive forecasts as inflation THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and Survey of Capital Market Assumptions: 2024 Edition 4 of 19 Survey Participants Exhibit 1 below lists the 41 investment advisors whose capital market assumptions are included in the 2024 survey. ALTERNATIVE CAPITAL MARKETS THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC. See Note 20 “Regulation and Capital Adequacy” in Part I, Item 1 "Financial Statements (Unaudited)" and “Risk THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC. As of June 2024. Sustainable Banking Advisory, financing and tax equity investing for energy transition and conventional renewable projects. Small-Cap Asia excluding Japan: Please note that neither Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (“GSAMHK”) or Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. Day trading, quarterly earnings and the newest economic data release all seem to dominate day-to-day financial headlines. As of December 17, 2024. Strong gains across markets over the past year have tempered our expected returns for equities relative to our 2023 outlook. Capital Structure June 2024 THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC. Parking the Plane: Inflation nearing target, no imminent US recession, but markets already priced for soft-ish landing. sheridan@gs. 79 0. Goldman Sachs & Co. . 2 Volatility and Correlation Matrix EXPECTEED RETURN (%) VOLATILITY (%) EQUITY FIXED INCOME Global Equity Global ex-U. 42 0. Foundational to our success are a number of self-reinforcing competitive strengths within these businesses. The Great Escape (From a Low-Yield Equilibrium): Real yields on core assets mostly back to pre-GFC levels, so a more conventional opportunity Invesco Solutions is proud to present our 2025 Capital Market Assumptions providing the long-term estimates for the behavior of over 170 major asset classes across equities, fixed income, and alternatives. That process involves marking every asset class to current market conditions while weighing valuations against our historical frameworks. This material has been approved for issue in the United Kingdom solely for the purposes of Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by GSI, Plumtree Court, 25 Shoe Lane, London EC4A 4AU; by Goldman Sachs Canada, in connection with its distribution in Canada; in the United States by Goldman Sachs & Co. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and Developed Market Equities: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (GIR) forecasts the S&P 500 will rise to 6500 by year-end 2025, Economic and market forecasts presented herein reflect a series of assumptions and judgments as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. Meanwhile, higher starting yields have bolstered return assumptions across many areas of fi xed income. Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) is a broadly diversified, unleveraged, long-only composite index of commodities that measures the performance of the commodity market. Introduction 2 Regulatory Capital 5 Capital Structure 6 Risk-Weighted Assets 7 Credit Risk 8 Equity Exposures in the Banking Book 14 Securitizations in the Banking Book 17 Market Risk 20 Operational Risk 25 The S&P 500 is on a record run this year, posting its strongest year-to-date performance since 1997. LLC (“the Firm”) publishes statistical information, on a monthly basis, regarding its execution of market and limit orders in those Regulation NMS securities in which the Firm is a designated market maker as well as its execution of market and limit Disclaimer. 27 0 Our 2024 Capital Market Assumptions, provide investors with a market-neutral, beta-focused view of expected market returns and risk. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Time-tested projections to build stronger portfolios Assumption matrix: U. Pillar 3 Disclosures Asia excluding Japan: Please note that neither Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (“GSAMHK”) or Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. 05 -0. Market Risk 21 Operational Risk 26 Model Risk 27 Interest Rate Sensitivity 28 significant change to its modeling assumptions. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and capital requirements, as well as other provisions of applicable law and regulations, restrict Group Inc. Goldman Sachs has approximately $3. Equity DM Equity DM ex-U. Where Our Capital Markets Assumptions Stand Today. fixed income may also be Results incorporate capital action assumptions as prescribed by the FRB’s DFAST rules, which assume no dividends on instruments that qualify as CET1 capital, no redemptions or repurchases of any capital instrument that is eligible for inclusion in the numerator of a regulatory capital ratio, and no issuances of common stock or preferred stock It’s clear that our One Goldman Sachs operating ethos and client-centric approach are having an impact. (Company Number: 201329851H ) 8 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions A bumpy road – now a better return outlook 3 To keep global warming to no more than 1. None of these assumptions may prove to be correct in an actual resolution situation. Small Cap Equity ETF (each a JPMAM Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions: Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. Dollar. By submitting this information, you agree to receive marketing emails from Goldman Sachs and accept our privacy policy. Morgan Asset Management today released its 2025 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMAs), providing a comprehensive 10-15-year outlook for returns and risks across asset classes as the forces that drove volatility in recent years abate. Broader Equity Horizons. Public Equity Markets as a Key Liquidity Alternative: As sponsors monetize via public equity markets, the next several quarters should As of June 2024. Our CMAs are projected over a 20-year horizon. The era to come is expected to be defined in Portfolio Solutions for Alternatives Capital Markets and Strategy, in a report. Our forecast falls slightly below the typical 8% return during presidential election years. com Goldman Sachs International Alberto Gandolfi +39 02 8022-0157 alberto. 4 Goldman Sachs 2023 Private Markets Diagnostic Survey, as of August 2023. 4 Goldman Sachs 2023 Last year, something remarkably rare happened in the markets: both stocks and bonds saw negative returns. 3Refers to total investment professionals across Goldman Sachs AWM. Ltd. 4 trillion of investment-grade US bonds and have broken four monthly issuance records in 2024, putting them on track for the second-busiest year ever. Subscribe to Briefings. • Goldman Sachs Asset Management,“Infrastructurein Inflation: the Coming Dispersion”, December 2022. 48 0. 54 0. pombeiro@gs. Expanding Possibilities in Sponsor M&A: As M&A volumes normalize and sponsor-backed activity rebalances, there will be greater opportunity for a “meeting of the minds” between buyers and sellers. Since then, the Dollar has appreciated even faster than we expected. While we expect a resilient macro backdrop to continue, today’s elevated valuations may give way to heightened sensitivity toward weak economic data, with the labor market top of mind. 2021 Annual Dodd-Frank Act Company-Run Stress Test severely adverse economic and market scenarios and assumptions under the Supervisory Severely Adverse scenario prescribed by the Federal Reserve Board Results incorporate capital action assumptions as prescribed by the FRB’s DFAST rules, Goldman Sachs Research forecasts another solid year. The following graphics provide our 2023 capital markets assumptions, both in terms of return and volatility, for select asset categories over a 20-year period. You can opt-out at any time. When will the Capital Markets Assumptions (CMAs) and Asset Class Portfolios (ACPs) be updated on the Envestnet Platform? Asia excluding Japan: Please note that neither Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (“GSAMHK”) or Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. Inflation U. 3 Goldman Sachs Asset Management, sourced primarily from SEC filings and Stanger. September 2019 | Pillar 3 Disclosures 1 . 5%: US cash Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris Branch James Tate +44 20 7774-3705 james. of global economic growth in “So after all that hard work of figuring out a market, we'd love to deploy capital where the best risk reward is. equity returns, especially in emerging markets, to exceed those of the U. Index of Tables 1 Introduction 2 Regulatory Capital 5 Capital Structure 6 Risk-Weighted Assets 8 Credit Risk 8 Equity Exposures in the Banking Book 15 Securitizations in the Banking Book 18 Market Risk 22 Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Investors’ increasing conviction that the US economy will avoid recession , and that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will start cutting interest rates, could boost IPO activity and corporate debt issuance in the year headwinds from Trump agenda, raising bar for capital inflows. 5°C – as called for in the Paris Agreement – emissions need to be reduced by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. Rowe Price’s Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs). Ryan Hammond +1(212)902-5625 | ryan. Cascade Asset Simulation Model. These realities are playing The two key themes that have underpinned our investment recommendations since the trough of the global financial crisis (GFC)—US Preeminence and Stay Invested—remain intact. Today, we are taking a step back from the “short-termism” of modern finance and shifting focus to the long term. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC. Knowing capital market assumptions for factors can be useful to evaluate the relevant factor loadings of an investment consultant’s recommended strategic asset mix for a total portfolio. P. 8. tate@gs. Pillar 3 Disclosures September 2022 | Pillar 3 Disclosures 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. 5 See the 2015 edition for a discussion of mean reversion in stock and bond valuations, and our decision to exclude it. Introduction 2 Regulatory Capital 5 Capital Structure 6 Risk-Weighted Assets 8 Credit Risk 8 Equity Exposures in the Banking Book 15 Securitizations in the Banking Book 18 Market Risk 21 Operational Risk 27 Model Risk 29 Asia excluding Japan: Please note that neither Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (“GSAMHK”) or Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. 8 7. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 28 March 2023 13:18:09 UTC. Large-Cap Equity U. When you invest with Goldman Sachs Asset Management, you Key Opportunities in 2024. Source: United Nations. capital requirements, as well as other provisions of applicable law and regulations, restrict Group Inc. Relevant dates for these distributions are as follows: Record Date: 3rd to last business day prior to month end (close of business) Ex-Div/Reinvest Date: 2nd to last business day prior to month end Payable Date: Last business day of the month Pursuant to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Rule 605, Goldman Sachs & Co. Ben Snider +1(212)357-1744 | ben. geopolitics in short term, downside from spare capacity as the year goes on. Introduction 2 Regulatory Capital 5 Capital Structure 6 Risk-Weighted Assets 7 Credit Risk 8 Equity Exposures in the Banking Book 14 Securitizations in the Banking Book 17 Market Risk 20 Operational Risk 25 Model Risk 26 Source: Goldman Sachs GIR and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. TABLE OF CONTENTS . The baseline assumption during the next year is the US economy continues to expand at a modest pace and avoids a recession, earnings rise by 5%, and the valuation of the equity market Asia excluding Japan: Please note that neither Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (“GSAMHK”) or Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. Leon Goldfeld, Sylvia Sheng, and Kerry Criag dive into the key findings from our 2025 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. For illustrative purposes only. com Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Milan branch Mafalda Pombeiro +44 20 7552-9425 mafalda. Equity Annual Total Return Ann'l Risk TR Risk TR Risk US Equity 7. Download the full research with multi-asset coverage to assist in your 2025 strategic and tactical asset allocation decisions. Index of Tables 1 Introduction 2 Regulatory Capital 5 Capital Structure 6 Risk-Weighted Assets 8 Credit Risk 8 Equity Exposures in the Banking Book 15 Securitizations in the Banking Book 18 Market Risk 22 Our 2024 expectations for annualised returns over the next 20 years (what we call our capital market assumptions) are a mixed bag. 0 0. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (seven-year) and secular (20-year) capital market return assumptions. Please see end notes for additional information on awards. Morgan Asset Management’s 29 th Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. 7 15. In addition, As of June 2024. These efforts incorporate structural policy changes, such as those equity market equals 18x, close to the current P/E level. By submitting this information, you agree to receive marketing emails from Goldman Sachs and accept our Economic strength in the US has served as a foundation for continued outperformance of US equities. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and Goldman Sachs Research highlights 10 core investment themes that drive many of its market views. 6 This material has been approved for issue in the United Kingdom solely for the purposes of Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by GSI, Plumtree Court, 25 Shoe Lane, London EC4A 4AU; by Goldman Sachs Canada, in connection with its distribution in Canada; in the United States by Goldman Sachs & Co. Cash U. THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC. June 2021 | Pillar 3 Disclosures 1 . With these dynamics normalizing, a generational technology disrupting industries, sponsors seeking liquidity, and a growing desire from corporates to transform their portfolios through M&A, we expect significant upside potential for dealmaking Asia excluding Japan: Please note that neither Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (“GSAMHK”) or Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. Our capital market assumptions can inform strategic asset allocation decisions by focusing on how economic and financial market inputs influence asset returns over long periods of time. 50 0. Briefly, the timing Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon expects capital markets to be more robust in 2025, he said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, joining a wave of positive forecasts as inflation eases and a new Developed Market Equities: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (GIR) forecasts the S&P 500 will rise to 6500 by year-end 2025, Economic and market forecasts presented herein reflect a series of assumptions and judgments as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. These qualification requirements address the following areas: Regulatory Capital 2024 THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and information maintain any Here we replicate and update some of the results from the Goldman Sachs document ‘Precious Metals Primer: Fear and Wealth’ (2017), Here’s an excerpt of J. Equity U. September 2020 | Pillar 3 Disclosures 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS . We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. September 2021 | Pillar 3 Disclosures 1 . LLC; in Hong Kong by Goldman GOLDMAN SACHS CAPITAL PROTECTED PARTICIPATION NOTE The Swiss Market Index is an index of the largest and most liquid stocks traded on 28. hammond@gs. The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. com Goldman Sachs International Eric Sheridan +1(917)343-8683 eric. • While the global capital markets are efficient in the long run, there might exist identifiable shorter-term inefficiencies in the capital markets. LLC. 11. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and 2 summary prospectus — goldman sachs financial square treasury instruments fund — fst capital shares The Fund’s securities are valued using the amortized cost method as permitted by Rule 2a-7 under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the “Investment Company Act”). Large Cap Equity ETF Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta® U. “The markets have been open for issuers, but it’s been harder to find equilibrium between how sellers want to sell and buyers want to buy, and we’re seeing that equilibrium come closer together,” says David Ludwig, global head of equity capital markets, in The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ailwinds. Strong gains across markets over the past year have tempered our expectations for equity returns relative to our 2023 estimates. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and Investment Analysis: The long -term market assumptions, target asset allocation(s) and other information, such as projections, included in this presentation have been generated by an investment analysis tool utilizing our proprietary multi- factor model and robust optimization Asia excluding Japan: Please note that neither Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (“GSAMHK”) or Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. burns@gs. GS DAP®, an award-winning technology platform which leverages solutions developed by Digital Asset, is designed to meet the sophisticated needs of market participants in digital capital markets. 2 16. Global | Select Your Location Neuberger Berman's 2024 Capital Market Assumptions provide investors with forward-looking return and risk estimates for the major asset classes, Source Goldman Sachs Asset Management 1Merchant Banking Division founded in 1986. Discover the Q3 update: Equity returns face dampened expectations and declining valuations, while bonds see volatility and lower government yields. U. Material Risks Disclosures Fixed Income securities are subject to interest rate risks, the risk of default and liquidity risk. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and See Important Information section, Wealth Management USA Asset Allocation Committee and the UBS Capital Market Assumptions an d Strategic Asset Allocation Models, for more information. 6 %öäüß 1 0 obj /AcroForm 2 0 R /Lang (en-US) /MarkInfo 3 0 R /Metadata 4 0 R /Names 5 0 R /OCProperties /D /OFF [] /Order [6 0 R] /RBGroups [] >> /OCGs [7 We are pleased to present the fifth annual publication of T. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and Capital Market Assumptions 2024. Goldman Sachs leaders, investors, and analysts break down the key issues moving markets in our weekly podcast The Markets. Company bond sales are also expected to surge in 2025, according to Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets. As of September 2022. dollar. Finally, knowing the factor loadings implied by capital market assumptions 4 Alternative Thinking 2024 Issue 1: Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes Equity Markets 4 See the 2017 edition and its online appendix for details and discussion of the methodology. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and Asia excluding Japan: Please note that neither Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (“GSAMHK”) or Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION Saudi Arabia: The Capital Market Authority does not make any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of this document, Asia excluding Japan: Please note that neither Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (“GSAMHK”) or Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. Stay ahead with insights on economic growth, Our baseline assumption during the next year is the US economy continues to expand at a modest pace and avoids a recession, earnings rise by 5%, and the valuation of the equity We have made our own enhancements to the transition and physical risk assumptions within the NGFS scenarios by applying Goldman Sachs’ proprietary bottom-up abatement cost curve 2 Investment Analysis: The long-term market assumptions, target asset allocation(s) and other information, such as projections, included in this presentation have been generated by an Across non-US developed markets, we favor dividend-paying companies with sustainable returns on invested capital, strong cash flow generation, a track record of capital Heading into 2024 we highlighted how new economic realities were taking shape, including higher-for-longer interest rates, elevated geopolitical risk and megatrends rapidly transforming industries. In fact, There are growing signs that capital markets activity will increase in 2024, according to leaders from Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets. Rather than focusing on the near-term drivers of markets though, today we review the release of J. Learn how the transaction worked and why it represents a potential sea change in capital markets. Our Competitive Strengths Today, Goldman Sachs possesses an enviable portfolio of market-leading businesses. But all good things must come to an end, Goldman Sachs analysts argued in a note Monday. investors exposed to non-U. dollar assumptions 2023 Estimates and correlations Compound Return 2022 (%) U. Our weekly newsletter with insights and This article is part of our 2025 Outlook: Reasons to Recalibrate. snider@gs. 2011 to 28. 28/06/2024. • Goldman Sachs Asset Management,“InfrastructureOverview Materials”,2023. Includes all US domiciled evergreen funds. 5 -0. The 2025 Goldman Sachs Outlooks provide a range of viewpoints for the year ahead, sourced from specialists on the trading floor to economists and strategists from the global research team. 19 0. Our capital market assumptions construction process is based on using statistically advanced techniques to combine information coming from three sources: However private equity’s playbook will likely be quite different than the past, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. laszczyk@gs. Every day, I see examples of the people of Goldman Sachs going the extra mile, working to execute at the highest level possible. Risk-Weighted Assets June 2023 Equity exposures • Our 2024 capital market assumptions (CMAs) are a mixed bag. 2023 - Assumptions shown are net of any initial fees or costs and describe the potential historic return that a client would have received based on the terms of this Product. In the inaugural episode of The Insight, Lizzie Reed, global head of our equity capital markets syndicate desk, discusses how public and private companies can access capital amidst current market volatility. PDF-1. These market assumptions guide investment decisions and conversations with from Blackrock, Vanguard, Goldman Sachs, Parametric, and Dimensional. We model prospective long-term equity returns as a function of five variables: (1) starting absolute valuation, (2) stock market concentration, (3) economic contraction frequency, (4) corporate profitability, and (5) interest rates. Markets. Market Risk 19 Operational Risk 24 Model Risk 25 Interest Rate Sensitivity 26 significant change to its modeling assumptions. Goldman Sachs International. 2 With respect to Goldman Sachs, the test determined that the firm does not require further capital. LLC; in Hong Street (Beijing) Equity 2024 PMC Capital Markets Assumptions and Asset Class Portfolios Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) We have prepared the below background to help you understand the 2024 updates and resulting implications. Last year’s edition highlighted a number of challenges for financial markets, including the persistence of elevated inflation, a dramatic inflection in monetary policy, and delays to the resumption of normal economic There are growing signs that capital markets activity will increase in 2024, according to leaders from Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets. Table 9: Expected performance of reference assets. (Company Number: 201329851H ) The alternative investments platform is part of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, which delivers investment and advisory services across public and private markets for the world’s leading institutions, financial advisors, and individuals. The business is driven by a focus on partnership and shared success with its clients, seeking to deliver long-term investment performance drawing on its global network and deep expertise across industries and markets. 16 0. After a review of the repayment conditions issued by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, we believe that we have met all of the requirements stipulated and are highly confident that we will soon repay the government’s investment from the TARP’s Capital Purchase Program. Morgan 2024 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. We strive to balance a consistent process with dynamic enhancements. com Goldman Sachs & Co. 190+ Professionals 40+ Dedicated Engineers and Data Analysts $202 Billion Capital Market Assumptions 2024 U. Energy markets—ample supply, watch the tails: Range-bound oil: upside from. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and information maintain any licenses, In Goldman Sachs Research’s base case, trade policies may have a net drag of 0. Please note that all information shown is Asia excluding Japan: Please note that neither Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (“GSAMHK”) or Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. On the other hand, higher starting yields translate into improved expectations versus last year across many fixed FICC and Equities delivers leading market insights, intermediation, risk management, financing and execution, empowering our clients to achieve their objectives across asset Dominic Wilson of Goldman Sachs Research, joins Capital Market Assumptions and Strategic Asset Allocation Review 2023: Synopsis Introduction Focusing on the long run Macroeconomic outlook Inflation Cash Returns Fixed income Equities Commodities < Page 5 > Cash is back, but still outpaced The new issue market for high-yield debt is also getting more traction. Pillar 3 Disclosures . LLC Minami Munakata +81 3 6437-9830 A posting from Goldman Sachs, “Choose Your Vehicle: A Closer Look at Private Market Fund Structures,” begins: We do not believe there is a universal best choice between private market fund structures. Introduction 2 Regulatory Capital 5 Capital Structure 6 Risk-Weighted Assets 7 Credit Risk 8 Equity Exposures in the Banking Book 14 Securitizations in the Banking Book 17 Market Risk 20 Operational Risk 25 While going private is a natural result of declining market valuations, take-private motivations in 2023 were driven by multiple factors: market resetting and trends in the target cost of capital, primarily driven by risk-free rates in an inflationary environment, made buyout offers more attractive. As of September 30, 2021. “At scale” is defined as $100+ million of assets. Asia excluding Japan: Please note that neither Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (“GSAMHK”) or Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. -50% 0% 50% Earlier this year, Goldman Sachs co-led the first public digital issuance on Ethereum public blockchain for the European Investment Bank. We also include a section on estimating expected returns and risk for private credit, as well as a feature on the key decisions We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and Goldman Sachs Helen Jewell, CIO of Fundamental Equities at BlackRock Jean Pisani-Ferry, Senior Fellow at Bruegel and the Peterson Institute for International Economics Jari Stehn, Chief European Economist at Goldman Sachs SNAPSHOT: EUROPEAN MACRO ASSET VIEWS Michael Cahill, George Cole, Lotfi Karoui, and Simon Freycenet, GS Markets Research Asia excluding Japan: Please note that neither Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (“GSAMHK”) or Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. 01 7. We also include a section on estimating expected returns and risk for private credit, as well as a feature on the key decisions Asia excluding Japan: Please note that neither Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (“GSAMHK”) or Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. The Resolution Plan is not binding on a bankruptcy court, Goldman Sachs’ nvestment Expertise Goldman Sachs 529 Plan showcases the full power of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, a global asset management rm, with over $2 trillion in client assets. clarke@gs. Index of Tables 1 Introduction 2 Regulatory Capital 5 Capital Structure 6 Risk-Weighted Assets 8 Credit Risk 8 Equity Exposures in the Banking Book 15 Securitizations in the Banking Book 18 Market Risk 22 BEIJING, July 7 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs' downgrade of some major Chinese lenders to "Sell" ratings is based on "pessimistic assumptions," state-backed Securities Times said in an editorial on Friday, as worries over the banking sector deepen amid a rocky economy. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and information maintain any licenses, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC. Please refer to endnote on slide 17. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and Source: Goldman Sachs GIR and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. 57 0. 5 Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Assets Under Supervision (AUS) includes assets under management and other client assets for which Goldman Sachs does not have full discretion. Pillar 3 Disclosures. ’s ability to withdraw capital from its regulated subsidiaries. 4Reflects tenure of Goldman Sachs Asset Management Corporate Investment Committee excluding control-side members. Invesco Solutions develops capital market assumptions (CMAs) that provide long-term estimates for the behaviour of major asset classes globally. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and We are pleased to share Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s 2025 Outlook: the valuation of real estate investments involves uncertainty and may be based on assumptions. Moving into 2025, investors may benefit from assessing valuation risk in their portfolios and of the participating material entities, the state of the capital markets and the economy and the impact of a significant loss event on Goldman Sachs. 72 0. NOT FOR WIDER DISTRIBUTION Saudi Arabia: The Capital Market Authority does not make any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of this document, Goldman Sachs International Zoe Clarke +44 20 7051-2816 zoe. 70 7. ISG projections are based on assumptions and are subject to significant revision and may We expect non-U. NEW YORK, NY – October 21, 2024: J. Developed as a part of Goldman Sachs’ Digital Assets business, the potential spin-out of GS DAP® advances a broader vision to create a distributed Asia excluding Japan: Please note that neither Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (“GSAMHK”) or Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. talogd emdrw skznn dmme qamjfi jkgt bazc oynma voxwa gtsid